The 2024 U.S. Senate (S)elections

The 2024 U.S. (S)elections are likely to end up in what will essentially be tie in the Senate.

There are currently 49 Republican Senators, 48 Democratic Senators and 3 Independent Senators that caucus with the Democrats.

This results in what is basically a slim 51-49 Democrat majority.

A total of 34 Senate seats will be contested in 2024.

Since Democratic Senator Joe Manchin has decided to not seek re-election, it seems certain that a Republican will win the Senate race in West Virginia.

Unless there is some sort of very unexpected upset, most of the Senate races (27) appear to be unlikely to switch parties.

So if Democrats retain control of the remaining 6 seats listed below, then the Senate will basically wind up divided. Just like our country.

1. Arizona (Independent Krysten Synema)

2. Michigan (Democrat Debbie Stabenow is retiring)

3. Montana (Democrat John Tester)

4. Ohio (Democrat Sherrod Brown)

5. Nevada (Democrat Jacky Rosen)

6. Pennsylvania (Democrat Robert Casey)

Arizona

This race is interesting because it seems that Krysten Synema will be running as an Independent. The leading Democratic candidate (Congressman Ruben Gallego) has already raised over $9.9 million dollars and has already spent over $6.2 million dollars. Independent Senator Krysten Synema has already raised over $4.5 million dollars and has already spent over $2 million dollars. The Republican candidates Kari Lake and Mark Lamb may benefit from the fact that this may be a three way race, but Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego appears to be the favorite at the moment.

Michigan

Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is NOT seeking re-election. Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin has already raised over $8.8 million dollars and has already spent over $3.6 million dollars. Democrat Hill Harper has raised over a million dollars and has already spent over $600,000. Former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers has raised only $820,000 dollars and only spent about $30,000 dollars.

Montana

Democratic Senator Jon Tester has already raised over $19.6 million dollars and has already spent over $7.1 million dollars. Republican candidate Tim Sheehy has raised only $2.8 million dollars and has already spent over $1.7 million dollars

Ohio

Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has already raised over $21.2 million dollars and spent over $11.3 million dollars. Three Republican candidates (Matt Dolan, Bernie Moreno and Frank LaRose) have collectively raised over $16.2 million dollars and spent over $3.7 million dollars.

Nevada

Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen has already raised over $16.1 million dollars and has already spent over $7.4 million dollars. Republican candidate Sam Brown has only raised over $1.1 million dollars and has already spent over $250,000 dollars.

Pennsylvania

Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. has already raised over $14.4 million dollars and has already spent over $7.5 million dollars. I was unable to find any fundraising information for the Republican Candidate Dave McCormick who has been polling approximately 8% behind Senator Casey.

West Virginia*

Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is not seeking re-election. Current Governor Jim Justice appears to be the favorite over Congressman Alex Mooney. Jim Justice has already raised over $1.5 million and spent over $380,000 while Alex Mooney has already raised over $2.3 million dollars and spent over $740,000 dollars.

*It is highly likely that one of the two Republican candidates will win the Senate race in West Virginia.

SOURCES:

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2024

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G24/Senate.phtml?v=u

At the moment, it seems like the final result will essentially be a tie, with 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 2 Independents (that are really Democrats).

50-50

Great.

What this really means is that “Congress” isn’t going to fix a damn thing.

We need to take matters into our own hands.

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